Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd2d…c4ad other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-5%) realized −$71 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$40
other 33% +$28
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +11.4% +0.8% 37% 37% -11.6%
≤30d 65 +11.4% +0.8% 37% 37% -11.6%
≤90d 65 +11.4% +0.8% 37% 37% -11.6%
all 65 +11.4% +0.8% 37% 37% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 37% -11.6%
10% -8.9% 37% -20.1%
15% -17.7% 37% -27.8%
20% -25.7% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 78
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 57¢ $17 $29 +$12 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 +$27 +550%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $15 +$10 +67%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $22 −$22 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $16 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 −$2 -10%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-0 Jun 28 $35 +$59 +168%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $45 −$29 -65%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$16 -82%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$32 +596%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $23 +$12 +52%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16 +$6 +36%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $35 +$17 +48%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$10 -67%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $16 −$9 -57%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $38 +$28 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 +$14 +40%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1 Jun 26 $12 −$6 -48%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $23 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $5 +$17 +344%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $17 +$11 +62%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$15 +101%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $18 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $16 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $14 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 24h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $16 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 40h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $4 41h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 11¢ $4 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $24 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on 20 BUY 37¢ $15 41h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? AND Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 BUY 4¢ $4 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $30 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 33¢ $13 42h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $23 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 43h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $5 43h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 20¢ $7 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.97 · official $67.71 · 175 history records