Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd2d…f7e2 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-14%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$64
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 50% -25.5%
≤30d 13 +5.6% -4.5% 54% 54% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 37% -24.7%
all 30 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 37% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 37% -24.7%
10% -42.3% 33% -31.9%
15% -47.9% 30% -38.5%
20% -53.0% 27% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage67d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$59 +225%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$12 +58%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$4 -70%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 18 $6 +$3 +45%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 10d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 60d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records