Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd28…bb37 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day151.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 31% +0.3%
≤30d 13 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 31% +0.3%
≤90d 13 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 31% +0.3%
all 13 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 31% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 31% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 23% -9.3%
15% -20.3% 15% -18.1%
20% -28.1% 15% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$31 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records