Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcd28…cecf crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,996 (-26%) realized −$9,759 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$677per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$3,655
other 5% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +71.1% +54.8% 62% 62% +42.7%
≤30d 54 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -18.7%
≤90d 54 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -18.7%
all 54 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 50% -18.7%
10% -19.4% 44% -26.5%
15% -27.2% 41% -33.6%
20% -34.4% 37% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,082) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$579 vs −$715 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,652
Realized−$9,759
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage24d
Avg bet$677
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $1,266 $1,650 +$384 (+30%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $623 $2 −$621 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $790 +$2,168 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $1,368 +$3,111 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $1,392 +$1,216 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $1,164 +$1,020 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $2,017 −$232 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $937 +$967 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $597 −$597 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $1,949 −$1,949 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $702 −$463 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $495 +$72 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $669 −$669 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $601 −$601 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $991 +$715 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $891 −$891 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 06 $889 +$530 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $1,274 +$1,789 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $1,284 +$1,150 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $651 +$640 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $252 +$233 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $127 +$127 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $58 +$51 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $202 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $583 −$583 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$109 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $1,877 −$1,877 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $2,016 −$2,016 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $35 +$31 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $1,219 −$1,219 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $1,496 −$1,496 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $470 −$470 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $1,991 +$639 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $861 −$861 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $108 +$100 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $1,082 −$1,082 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 62¢ $73 39m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 63¢ $233 39m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $981 39m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 15¢ $642 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $846 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $266 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $524 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $618 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $702 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $457 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $743 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $147 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $976 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $406 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1,611 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $284 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $246 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $249 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $536 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $937 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $256 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $341 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $39 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,651.91 · official $1,651.91 (match) · 171 history records