Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd24…567c other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$10
world 36% +$1
politics 18% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.8% 31% 15% -7.3%
≤90d 16 -2.0% -11.3% 25% 12% -9.5%
all 52 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 8% -8.5%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.3%
15% -27.1% 2% -25.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage308d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $56 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $24 +$7 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $25 −$6 -25%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $54 −$1 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $36 +$13 +37%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
FDA approves UX111? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $22 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $27 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $27 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $11 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $56 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $4 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $27 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $11 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.33 · official $54.12 (match) · 143 history records