Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd22…e201 other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$26
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$29
sports 25% −$7
politics 23% −$13
crypto 10% −$11
economics 5% −$6
finance 3% −$4
culture 2% −$1
world 1% −$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 18% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 67 -0.9% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 115 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 128 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $177 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $436 −$5 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $111 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$3 -4%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $263 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $95 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $419 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $305 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $329 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $39 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $24 8m
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $10 25m
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $38 56m
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $38 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $43 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $43 17h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 18h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 22h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 36h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 36h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $63 37h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $63 45h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 46h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $51 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $53 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $47 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $16 3d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.32 · official $34.32 (match) · 496 history records