trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +29.9% | +17.5% | 100% | 100% | +17.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 80% | 20% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 90% | 20% | -9.3% |
| all | 23 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 96% | 9% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 9% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 4% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $66 | $66 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? | Jun 24 | $51 | +$15 | +30% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 17 | $332 | +$9 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $310 | +$10 | +3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 15 | $309 | +$7 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $60 | −$49 | -81% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 13 | $51 | +$8 | +16% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 05 | $51 | +$1 | +1% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 03 | $51 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 1? | Apr 07 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1? | Apr 07 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 27? | Mar 01 | $47 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | Feb 27 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 26? | Jan 27 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30? | Dec 26 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | Nov 29 | $46 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? | Oct 29 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? | Aug 26 | $105 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Jul 25 | $105 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 24 | $104 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? | May 30 | $97 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? | Apr 13 | $104 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Jan 21 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 21 | $72 | +$1 | +1% |