Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd20…6159 crypto 1222 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$915 (-4%) realized −$887 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%501W / 700L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$197
14 days−$454
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$533
crypto 18% −$222
politics 12% −$64
other 7% −$122
tech 6% −$4
finance 2% −$7
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
sports 0% +$1
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -10.5% -19.0% 4% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 193 -9.2% -17.8% 4% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 1194 -5.3% -14.3% 42% 36% -13.3%
all 1201 -5.3% -14.3% 42% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 36% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 31% -21.2%
15% -30.0% 31% -28.8%
20% -36.9% 31% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$887
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses501 / 700
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1201 / 1222
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 74¢ 74¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 50¢ 38¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 86¢ 81¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 54¢ 46¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 17¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 17¢ 10¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 21 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 20 $6 $0 -3%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $99 −$4 -4%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 20 $3 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 20 $46 −$1 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $39 −$4 -9%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? Jun 20 $8 $0 +3%
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 -22%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $24 −$4 -17%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swed Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $30 −$2 -7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 20 $17 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 23m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 4h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 56¢ $6 4h
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 36¢ $16 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 36¢ $2 4h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 17¢ $8 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $48 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 36¢ $18 6h
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $26 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $7 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $26 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $6 9h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $4 10h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $37 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 74¢ $37 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.39 · official $441.39 (match) · 3420 history records