Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd1e…6983 crypto 1803 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$84 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate87%1699W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day143.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$911
7 days−$974
14 days−$951
30 days−$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$39
sports 2% +$39
other 2% −$89
weather 0% −$19
world 0% +$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1367 -11.0% -19.4% 84% 2% -26.1%
≤30d 1951 -7.2% -16.0% 87% 1% -19.0%
≤90d 1951 -7.2% -16.0% 87% 1% -19.0%
all 1951 -7.2% -16.0% 87% 1% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 1% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 1% -26.8%
15% -31.4% 1% -33.9%
20% -38.1% 1% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1699 / 252
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1951 / 1803
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day143.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1951 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 45¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 71¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 254 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.38 · official $55.76 · 3500 history records