Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd1d…33aa sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,969 (-30%) realized −$4,949 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days−$3,876
14 days−$4,003
30 days−$4,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$3,688
world 26% +$851
sports 24% −$391
politics 17% −$1,529
crypto 2% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 56% -54.8%
≤30d 24 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 46% -52.8%
≤90d 42 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 45% -41.1%
all 47 +12.1% +1.4% 53% 47% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 47% -35.8%
10% -8.3% 45% -41.9%
15% -17.1% 38% -47.5%
20% -25.3% 32% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +31% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$370 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$4,949
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage250d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Saudi Arabia 57¢ 100¢ $100 $176 +$76 (+76%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 74¢ 0¢ $121 $1 −$120 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $408 +$344 +84%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $209 −$209 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $171 +$129 +75%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $252 +$90 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $124 +$76 +61%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $341 +$247 +72%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $105 −$5 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $140 +$60 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $390 +$210 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,041 −$4,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $106 −$63 -60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $112 +$38 +33%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $300 +$300 +100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$30 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$67 -66%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$126 +246%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 08 $2,180 −$2,180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $1,740 +$738 +42%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $400 +$68 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 30 $10 +$21 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$38 +375%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 26 $110 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$12 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 26 $2 +$8 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 26 $100 +$83 +82%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $2,000 +$18 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 24 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $500 +$650 +130%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 07 $71 +$21 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $126 +$44 +35%
Will Trump visit China by October 31? Nov 02 $125 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 57¢ $101 54m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $751 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $245 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $104 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $33 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $118 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $3 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 69¢ $209 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $16 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $90 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $8 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $7 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $21 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $171 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 73¢ $252 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $46 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 98¢ $588 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 55¢ $1 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 55¢ $6 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 55¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.41 · official $400.76 (match) · 140 history records