trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -29.2% | -35.9% | 33% | 33% | -3.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -29.2% | -35.9% | 33% | 33% | -3.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -29.2% | -35.9% | 33% | 33% | -3.1% |
| all | 3 | -29.2% | -35.9% | 33% | 33% | -3.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -35.9% | 33% | -3.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -42.1% | 33% | -12.3% |
| 15% | -47.7% | 0% | -20.8% |
| 20% | -52.8% | 0% | -28.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $1,455 | $1,449 | −$6 (-0%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $648 | $877 | +$229 (+35%) |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $700 | $701 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $450 | $444 | −$6 (-1%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 15¢ | 11¢ | $500 | $374 | −$126 (-25%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | $200 | $136 | −$64 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Jun 19 | $2,671 | +$598 | +22% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 15 | $502 | −$50 | -10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |