Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd1c…61d7
other · 203 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$4,031 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,051 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$603
Realized−$4,051
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses97 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)197 / 203
History coverage756d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 6 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$134
14 days−$443
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $300 $385 +$85 (+28%)
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $65 $33 −$32 (-49%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-58%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 0¢ $343 $0 −$343 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $300 −$134 -44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $347 −$343 -99%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 31 $16 −$9 -56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $32 +$94 +297%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $54 −$51 -94%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 27 $573 +$532 +93%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $182 −$77 -42%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 21 $1,062 +$184 +17%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 02 $910 +$5 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Belgium join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $410 −$410 -100%
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Italy join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $46 +$2 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $1,555 +$117 +8%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 30 $3 +$1 +40%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $500 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $298 −$298 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $168 −$168 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $435 +$65 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$100 +948%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 11 $81 +$36 +45%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Mar 08 $60 −$51 -86%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? Mar 01 $2,044 +$410 +20%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $1,000 +$150 +15%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 10-16? Feb 10 $304 −$240 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$1,715
politics 13% −$1,071
culture 9% −$462
tech 9% +$564
world 7% −$656
crypto 5% −$264
sports 4% −$370
finance 1% +$93
economics 1% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $300 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $166 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $300 2d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $220 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $127 12d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 13d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 37¢ $1 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Rico 75¢ $906 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 43¢ $305 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 24¢ $102 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Rico 16¢ $195 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 14¢ $62 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 11¢ $103 20d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $105 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 86¢ $1,246 23d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $182 32d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $167 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $3 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $4 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $20 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $7 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $3 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $23 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $6 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $15 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $14 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $197 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -44.5% -49.8% 0% 0% -49.8%
≤30d 11 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 27% -6.7%
≤90d 38 -55.4% -59.7% 24% 16% -21.3%
all 197 -19.4% -27.1% 49% 22% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 22% -13.5%
10% -34.1% 15% -21.8%
15% -40.4% 11% -29.4%
20% -46.3% 9% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.41 · official $603.73 (match) · 931 history records