Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd18…066a sports 494 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$260 (-3%) realized −$259 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%323W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$76
14 days−$39
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$12
other 7% −$153
crypto 2% −$60
world 0% −$25
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 33% -13.6%
≤30d 246 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 52% -9.1%
≤90d 492 -1.8% -11.2% 66% 52% -12.0%
all 492 -1.8% -11.2% 66% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 52% -12.0%
10% -19.7% 36% -20.4%
15% -27.4% 24% -28.1%
20% -34.6% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses323 / 169
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)492 / 494
History coverage56d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $56 −$2 -4%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $51 +$25 +50%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$27 -27%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$148 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$66 -65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $148 +$95 +64%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $153 −$16 -11%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $168 −$2 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$34 -84%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -90%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$15 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 −$3 -18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 10h
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over $3 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over $5 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $40 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $30 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $10 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $10 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $74 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 18h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 18h
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $20 42h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $152 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $35 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $148 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $137 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $153 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $167 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $112 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $56 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $56 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.77 · official $148.78 (match) · 1134 history records