Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd14…1c17 crypto 616 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,108 (-1%) realized −$1,097 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%451W / 162L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$28
14 days+$32
30 days−$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,162
culture 0% +$18
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 64 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 5% -15.7%
≤90d 275 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 5% -17.0%
all 613 -11.0% -19.4% 74% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 15% -10.1%
10% -27.1% 11% -18.7%
15% -34.2% 8% -26.5%
20% -40.6% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$112 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$1,097
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses451 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)613 / 616
History coverage168d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $134 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $80 $68 −$12 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $111 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $113 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $198 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $216 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $79 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $213 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 17? Jun 20 $0 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $1,011 −$598 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 28? May 29 $112 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 28? May 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $184 −$86 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on May 28? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 28 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $368 +$217 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 27? May 27 $39 +$31 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 26? May 27 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $219 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $78 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $73 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $110 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $91 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $113 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $107 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $20 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $14 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $6 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.20 · official $209.20 (match) · 2811 history records