Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcd14…4bb6 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$440 (-19%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$493
7 days−$476
14 days−$476
30 days−$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$579
sports 14% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 67% 50% -29.1%
≤30d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 67% 50% -29.1%
≤90d 7 +13.8% +2.9% 71% 57% -23.2%
all 7 +13.8% +2.9% 71% 57% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 57% -23.2%
10% -6.9% 29% -30.6%
15% -15.9% 29% -37.3%
20% -24.1% 14% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$365 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage91d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $818 +$110 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $256 +$103 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $209 +$25 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $193 +$16 +8%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 19 $60 +$133 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $469 50m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $460 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $459 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $358 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $358 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $256 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $497 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $233 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $209 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $209 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $193 2d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela BUY Venezuela 31¢ $60 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records