Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd12…4fb7 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,089 (-10%) realized −$1,088 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$22
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$810
other 37% −$22
politics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$21
finance 4% −$143
tech 3% −$3
world 1% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -36.9% -42.9% 14% 14% -64.4%
≤90d 18 -42.0% -47.6% 17% 6% -52.8%
all 33 +24.0% +12.2% 15% 6% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 6% -19.1%
10% +1.5% 6% -26.8%
15% -8.3% 6% -33.9%
20% -17.3% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$50 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$1,088
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 28
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage235d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $46 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $49 +$41 +84%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $46 −$14 -30%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 11 $111 −$6 -5%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $80 −$7 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $114 −$114 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $163 −$160 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $209 −$206 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals May 25 $269 −$265 -99%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $41 −$8 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 22 $118 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 22 $111 −$15 -13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 22 $257 −$143 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 22 $237 +$13 +5%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $268 −$1 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 18 $219 −$216 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 14 $28 −$5 -18%
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aurora win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 24 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 18 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 31? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 10 $359 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 1-7? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Dec 03 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 17-23? Nov 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 19 $379 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 12 $359 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 03 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 03 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 02 $1,733 −$2 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 01 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 77¢ $47 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $47 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 31¢ $59 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 33¢ $66 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $49 8d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 22¢ $32 11d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $105 13d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $46 14d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $111 14d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 22¢ $73 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $114 18d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $80 20d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $163 27d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $209 28d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals BUY No 52¢ $269 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $32 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 34¢ $122 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL No 50¢ $96 33d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $114 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 93¢ $250 33d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $267 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 31¢ $118 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 54¢ $111 33d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $219 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 87¢ $237 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 43d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 46d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $257 47d
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.40 · official $601.40 (match) · 186 history records