Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcd11…64af sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-53%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$39
other 13% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 50% -16.9%
≤30d 7 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -63.4%
≤90d 7 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -63.4%
all 7 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 43% -63.4%
10% -33.4% 43% -66.9%
15% -39.8% 43% -70.1%
20% -45.7% 43% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $4 +$3 +73%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$3 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $32 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $2 21h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $2 21h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $2 21h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $2 21h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $3 21h
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 85¢ $2 4d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 90¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.95 · official $5.95 (match) · 21 history records