Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd10…5664 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$211 (+33%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$88
other 33% +$90
sports 13% +$41
politics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 55% +22.1%
≤30d 31 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 55% +22.1%
≤90d 31 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 55% +22.1%
all 31 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 55% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 55% +22.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 55% +10.4%
15% -26.8% 55% -0.3%
20% -34.0% 32% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$5 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $63 +$38 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 21 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $4 +$2 +55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $20 +$20 +101%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $10 +$8 +80%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $10 −$3 -25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 +$80 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 52¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 30¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 5h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $64 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $10 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records