Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CD 0xcd0f…f275 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+36%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$10
other 42% +$34
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.8% -54.6% 50% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 7 +7.4% -2.8% 43% 29% +47.5%
≤90d 22 +13.0% +2.2% 45% 36% +20.2%
all 22 +13.0% +2.2% 45% 36% +20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 36% +20.2%
10% -7.6% 32% +8.7%
15% -16.5% 23% -1.8%
20% -24.7% 18% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.71 per $1 lost it wins $5.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage42d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Boston Legacy FC 0 - 1 Orlando Pride? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$38 +366%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$2 +16%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 14 $10 −$1 -7%
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5 May 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? May 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride end in a draw? May 13 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $2 +$1 +47%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 10 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? May 09 $2 +$1 +30%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 09 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $1 $0 -2%
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $6 $0 -6%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 61¢ $2 2d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 35¢ $48 17d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $5 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 18d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $17 31d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 31d
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 34d
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 34d
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 34d
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 35d
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 35d
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 35d
Will Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 36d
Will Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 36d
Exact Score: Boston Legacy FC 0 - 1 Orlando Pride? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 36d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 37d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 37d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 38d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 38d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 38d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records