Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd0d…51e6 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-16%) realized −$36 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$6
sports 17% −$21
crypto 14% −$6
tech 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.1% -37.7% 25% 8% -28.3%
≤30d 16 -28.3% -35.1% 38% 12% -28.5%
≤90d 16 -28.3% -35.1% 38% 12% -28.5%
all 16 -28.3% -35.1% 38% 12% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 12% -28.5%
10% -41.3% 6% -35.4%
15% -47.0% 0% -41.6%
20% -52.2% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage21d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $80 −$6 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 −$21 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$2 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 26 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 75¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 61¢ $28 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 34¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 96¢ $31 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.91 · official $11.91 (match) · 62 history records