Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd0b…c5ff other 290 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,397 (-1%) realized −$4,683 · open +$1,286
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%137W / 150L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,618per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1,469est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$6,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,374
7 days−$3,160
14 days+$1,764
30 days−$7,532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$3,567
sports 30% +$23
crypto 1% −$951
finance 0% −$188
world 0% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 34% -15.2%
≤30d 54 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 35% -17.3%
≤90d 208 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 36% -26.6%
all 287 -0.4% -9.9% 48% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 43% -10.8%
10% -18.5% 40% -19.3%
15% -26.4% 37% -27.1%
20% -33.6% 28% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,851) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$863 vs −$830 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$6,766
Realized−$4,683
Unrealized+$1,286
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses137 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,469
Open positions3
Markets (closed)287 / 290
History coverage196d
Avg bet$1,618
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $2,000 $3,381 +$1,381 (+69%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $2,500 $2,482 −$18 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $980 $903 −$77 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $1,009 −$33 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2,012 +$1,138 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,744 +$1,574 +42%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,021 −$42 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,180 −$612 -52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,155 −$75 -6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,315 +$780 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,039 +$2,224 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,116 −$1,014 -91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,248 −$61 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,008 −$781 -78%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,043 +$1,999 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,015 −$31 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,622 −$719 -44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $404 +$168 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,517 −$66 -4%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,502 −$1,222 -49%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,834 −$2,800 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $508 +$556 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,018 +$1,421 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,105 +$1,395 +45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,135 +$30 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,028 −$1,270 -63%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,135 −$626 -55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,137 −$712 -33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,705 +$1,854 +39%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,823 −$1,800 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,922 +$2,086 +108%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $597 +$269 +45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,041 −$863 -28%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,851 −$1,050 -57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,573 +$3,509 +98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $487 +$513 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $513 +$487 +95%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Albania vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $956 −$954 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2,027 −$1,956 -96%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $1,816 −$909 -50%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $1,519 −$1,178 -78%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,010 −$630 -62%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $480 −$338 -70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,031 +$1,361 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $223 −$11 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $529 −$291 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $989 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $984 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,523 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 68¢ $976 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1,009 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under 60¢ $12 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2,012 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $979 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $1,417 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $568 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 67¢ $2,020 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $759 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $238 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $81 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $3 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,180 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1,155 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,095 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $1,315 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 44h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $102 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1,116 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,039 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $1,187 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2,029 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,248 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,765.68 · official $6,751.68 (match) · 1352 history records