Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd08…04fa sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$958 (-39%) realized −$842 · open −$116
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,186
sports 45% +$8
world 3% +$105
crypto 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 28% 28% -47.4%
≤30d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 28% 28% -47.4%
≤90d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 28% 28% -47.4%
all 18 +1.1% -8.5% 28% 28% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 28% -47.4%
10% -17.3% 28% -52.5%
15% -25.3% 28% -57.1%
20% -32.6% 28% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$138 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$842
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $221 −$216 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 15 $299 −$293 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$96 -78%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $57 +$176 +307%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $139 −$136 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $79 +$105 +133%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $367 −$359 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $307 −$301 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $146 +$160 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$31 +612%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$322 +158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $63 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $56 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $24 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $299 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $33 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 24¢ $57 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $139 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $138 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $47 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $367 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $96 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $211 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $146 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 99¢ $0 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 95¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $1.07 (match) · 36 history records