Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd01…f8d7 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$249 (-4%) realized −$22 · open −$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate60%43W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$2
other 13% −$60
politics 11% −$92
crypto 6% −$44
sports 2% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -77.4% -79.6% 0% 0% -79.6%
≤30d 26 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 8% -15.1%
≤90d 72 +4.4% -5.6% 60% 25% -10.4%
all 72 +4.4% -5.6% 60% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 25% -10.4%
10% -14.6% 21% -19.0%
15% -22.9% 14% -26.8%
20% -30.4% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage75d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $183 $182 −$2 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $282 $142 −$139 (-49%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $218 $136 −$82 (-38%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 88¢ 86¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 16 $101 −$78 -77%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $169 +$39 +23%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $94 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 31 $29 −$12 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 31 $16 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 31 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 31 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 31 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 31 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $284 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $335 −$3 -1%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 25 $9 +$1 +10%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 23 $102 +$40 +39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $98 +$5 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $83 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $60 −$8 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $182 +$5 +3%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 20 $10 −$3 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $25 −$3 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $47 +$17 +38%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? May 20 $50 −$5 -10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $31 +$7 +22%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 17 $68 −$66 -98%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $112 −$6 -5%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $88 +$20 +23%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $46 +$112 +243%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $369 +$8 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $50 −$4 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 14 $84 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $200 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 14 $78 −$4 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $97 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $183 1h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 18¢ $23 6d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 77¢ $101 11d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $9 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 95¢ $209 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $90 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $17 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $14 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.73 · official $561.08 (match) · 362 history records