Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccfe…3093 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
politics 23% $0
other 16% −$6
sports 5% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 7% -9.2%
all 44 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage318d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in July? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $9 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $2 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $36 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $32 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $15 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $24 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $9 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $11 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $10 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $43 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $8 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.64 · official $50.60 (match) · 149 history records