Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccf6…b29f sports 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,165 (-20%) realized −$2,164 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,607
7 days−$1,654
14 days−$3,079
30 days−$2,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$2,254
crypto 6% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -32.4% -38.8% 41% 41% -57.6%
≤30d 120 -15.5% -23.6% 50% 45% -32.7%
≤90d 131 -10.4% -18.9% 53% 47% -28.8%
all 131 -10.4% -18.9% 53% 47% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 47% -28.8%
10% -26.7% 44% -35.6%
15% -33.8% 37% -41.8%
20% -40.3% 25% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$79 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$2,164
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 61
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage35d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group A Millennium Esports 51¢ 50¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$26 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$11 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$7 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$24 -79%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $112 −$112 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $111 −$111 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 23 $222 −$211 -95%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 23 $223 −$223 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 23 $217 −$217 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 23 $228 −$228 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 23 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$15 +50%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $110 +$55 +50%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $448 −$220 -49%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $294 +$120 +41%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $232 +$53 +23%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $47 −$46 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$64 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$52 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $222 +$38 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Michael Zheng Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 13 $119 −$119 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$25 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Jay Clarke Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Millennium Esports 51¢ $126 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $51 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corn BUY 72¢ $54 5h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $110 13h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 36¢ $228 6d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 38¢ $229 6d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $45 6d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 76¢ $403 6d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 36¢ $412 6d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $413 6d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 70¢ $294 6d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Karen Khachanov 87¢ $285 6d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 40¢ $217 7d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 70¢ $232 7d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close SELL Game Master 74¢ $10 7d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 78¢ $10 7d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 7¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.20 · official $123.20 (match) · 299 history records