Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CC 0xccf5…42f2 sports 1260 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 417d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$254 (+0%) realized +$254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%703W / 557L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1,234est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$779
14 days+$1,056
30 days+$1,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$249
crypto 9% −$1,929
other 2% +$1,564
world 1% −$942
politics 0% +$657
tech 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +61.1% +45.8% 68% 68% +7.7%
≤30d 197 +11.7% +1.0% 61% 60% -2.5%
≤90d 638 +8.1% -2.2% 59% 56% -12.7%
all 1260 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 53% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 49% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 42% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$237 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses703 / 557
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1260 / 1260
History coverage418d ⚠
Avg bet$305
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1260 Trades
no open positions (494 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$31 +93%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $100 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$76 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $104 +$77 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $99 +$104 +105%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 −$91 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $100 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $117 +$75 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $54 +$26 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $107 +$47 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$107 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $130 +$79 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $97 +$57 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $154 +$55 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$79 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $90 +$40 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $192 +$98 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $200 −$7 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$47 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $300 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $72 −$70 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $197 +$103 +52%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $138 +$60 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $88 +$49 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $68 +$20 +30%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $200 +$68 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $126 −$126 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $130 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$54 -97%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $100 +$56 +56%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$13 +84%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $68 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$36 -96%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $99 +$37 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $44 +$25 +57%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $89 +$63 +72%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $106 +$72 +68%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $167 −$57 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$54 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $33 28h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 99¢ $120 31h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 82¢ $100 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $176 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $181 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $104 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $92 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $191 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $117 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 73¢ $117 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 84¢ $39 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $139 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $80 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $54 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $154 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $107 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $207 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 3461 history records