Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccec…dc74 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$4
other 8% −$6
politics 2% $0
sports 1% −$22
weather 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.1% -17.7% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 21 -3.1% -12.3% 38% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 28 -2.6% -11.9% 39% 4% -9.9%
all 51 +27.2% +15.1% 49% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 18% -10.0%
10% +4.1% 16% -18.6%
15% -6.0% 12% -26.5%
20% -15.2% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage529d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 −$4 -68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $121 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $69 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $66 −$2 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 −$2 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $13 −$1 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $580 −$3 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 13 $7 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 12 $334 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $56 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $37 −$1 -1%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 16 $3 +$3 +100%
DePaul vs. Xavier Feb 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? Feb 13 $1 +$8 +1150%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Feb 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Terry McLaurin score a touchdown? Feb 02 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on January 25? Feb 02 $2 +$9 +438%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 28 $1 $0 +24%
Will the Vikings and Rams combine for 48 or more points? Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers NOT throw an int Jan 11 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Jan 11 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $6 +$3 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $23 30h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $22 30h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $1 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $9 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $22 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.44 · official $25.95 (match) · 189 history records