Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcceb…f030 other 896 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (270 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,358 (-64%) realized −$25,217 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate23%164W / 550L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day269.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,012
world 33% −$556
politics 10% −$218
tech 9% −$441
finance 8% −$207
sports 3% −$138
crypto 1% −$14
economics 1% −$26
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (270 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 -7.8% -16.6% 24% 8% -14.7%
≤30d 714 -6.7% -15.6% 23% 7% -15.9%
≤90d 714 -6.7% -15.6% 23% 7% -15.9%
all 714 -6.7% -15.6% 23% 7% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover269.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 7% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 3% -24.0%
15% -31.1% 2% -31.3%
20% -37.8% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,881
Realized−$25,217
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses164 / 550
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions235
Markets (closed)714 / 896
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day269.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 235 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $101 $110 +$9 (+9%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $107 $97 −$10 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 86¢ 100¢ $69 $80 +$11 (+16%)
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 85¢ 98¢ $68 $78 +$10 (+15%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 86¢ 75¢ $86 $75 −$11 (-13%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 89¢ $26 $71 +$45 (+170%)
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 89¢ 84¢ $71 $68 −$4 (-5%)
Will José Ramírez record the most intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 92¢ 94¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+3%)
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? Yes 79¢ 77¢ $63 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 42¢ 66¢ $39 $61 +$23 (+58%)
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30? No 96¢ 87¢ $67 $61 −$6 (-9%)
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 78¢ 74¢ $62 $60 −$3 (-4%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $54 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 71¢ 69¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 75¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 83¢ 84¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 88¢ 91¢ $45 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? No 90¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-10 House seat? No 86¢ 92¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 85¢ 91¢ $43 $45 +$3 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 90¢ 88¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aisha Wahab advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? Jun 17 $51 +$17 +33%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$14 -37%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $57 −$3 -5%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I Jun 17 $53 −$24 -46%
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 17 $38 −$22 -58%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 −$12 -33%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -5%
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 16 $8 +$19 +225%
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? Jun 16 $19 −$3 -18%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 +15%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat? Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 16 $32 −$10 -31%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Erling Haaland score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show Jun 16 $0 $0 +6%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -70%
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $0 $0 -12%
Will Masyn Winn win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? Jun 16 $0 $0 -8%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Jun 16 $35 −$10 -28%
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 16 $45 −$1 -1%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 16 $42 −$8 -20%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $21 −$5 -25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Will Mike Rogers win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michiga Jun 16 $1 $0 -60%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 16 $58 −$3 -5%
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$24 -65%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Jun 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June? Jun 16 $9 −$3 -37%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 16 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 16 $113 +$3 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Argentina win the World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 16 $23 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $79 +$5 +6%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? SELL No 86¢ $68 16m
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 42m
Will Bennett Stirtz be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Karim Lopez be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $48 1h
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 87¢ $44 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I SELL No 42¢ $29 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I BUY No 76¢ $53 2h
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 2h
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 3h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? SELL No 19¢ $11 3h
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 3h
Will Pedro Neto score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $45 3h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo BUY No 71¢ $57 3h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? SELL Yes 76¢ $22 3h
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? BUY No 37¢ $10 3h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $6 4h
Will Algeria go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4h
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 4h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 4h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $49 4h
Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat? SELL No 16¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $53 5h
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 5h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $17 5h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $41 5h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $22 5h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,880.72 · official $3,881.49 (match) · 3500 history records