Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccea…1c48 crypto 216 markets active 11d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-3%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%63W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$348
weather 2% −$43
politics 1% −$3
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 216 -22.6% -30.0% 29% 24% -18.9%
≤90d 216 -22.6% -30.0% 29% 24% -18.9%
all 216 -22.6% -30.0% 29% 24% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 24% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 21% -26.7%
15% -42.8% 16% -33.8%
20% -48.4% 12% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses63 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$8 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$19 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $90 −$30 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $13 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 842 history records