Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CC 0xcce8…4197 world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,346 (+14%) realized +$1,341 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate70%62W / 27L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$57
30 days+$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$1,161
other 11% −$7
finance 6% +$15
politics 3% +$133
economics 1% +$34
tech 1% +$10
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.7% +10.1% 100% 100% +10.1%
≤30d 17 +55.6% +40.8% 59% 47% +28.6%
≤90d 49 +31.5% +19.0% 67% 49% +9.6%
all 89 +14.8% +3.9% 70% 31% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 31% +5.0%
10% -6.0% 17% -5.1%
15% -15.1% 13% -14.2%
20% -23.4% 9% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,105
Realized+$1,341
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses62 / 27
Open positions10
Markets (closed)89 / 99
History coverage145d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 90¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 57¢ 94¢ $100 $166 +$66 (+66%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No 72¢ 68¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 91¢ 62¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 14¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 20 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Jun 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $51 +$100 +195%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $100 +$31 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $100 +$12 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $100 +$89 +89%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 −$48 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $50 +$506 +1011%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $51 −$13 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 21 $51 −$15 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 21 $51 −$45 -89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 21 $101 +$48 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $52 −$18 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $100 +$16 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $50 +$11 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $100 −$10 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 06 $51 +$18 +36%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 06 $180 +$31 +17%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of April 27 202 May 01 $100 +$10 +10%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 30 $100 +$4 +4%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 28 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $100 +$57 +57%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $100 +$14 +14%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 23? Apr 24 $90 +$17 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$19 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $100 +$20 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $100 +$62 +62%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $50 +$123 +246%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $50 +$205 +410%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $100 +$41 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $400 −$80 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 202 Mar 23 $100 −$99 -99%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $133 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $100 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $100 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $100 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $100 15h
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $112 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $100 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $274 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $100 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $107 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $106 9d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 68¢ $102 15d
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $101 15d
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? BUY No 72¢ $101 15d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $100 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $100 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $100 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $44 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 98¢ $151 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $100 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $100 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $131 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 66¢ $101 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $112 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $189 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 32¢ $51 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $100 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? BUY No 9¢ $50 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,104.97 · official $1,106.19 (match) · 214 history records