Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcce6…9582 crypto 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%285W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 6% -7.1%
≤30d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 6% -7.1%
≤90d 353 -1.9% -11.3% 81% 29% -9.9%
all 353 -1.9% -11.3% 81% 29% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 29% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 14% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 5% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses285 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)353 / 353
History coverage83d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $87 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 04 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 04 $41 −$37 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 04 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 04 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 04 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 04 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 04 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 04 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 04 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 04 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 04 $83 −$41 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1244 history records