Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CC 0xcce5…c8f4 sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,165 (+23%) realized +$1,104 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%82W / 56L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$209
14 days+$567
30 days+$648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$997
other 31% +$511
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +28.2% +16.0% 44% 44% +38.5%
≤30d 94 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 43% +13.4%
≤90d 116 +26.1% +14.1% 53% 53% +25.3%
all 138 +29.9% +17.5% 59% 59% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 59% +26.1%
10% +6.3% 59% +14.0%
15% -4.0% 56% +3.0%
20% -13.4% 49% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$761
Realized+$1,104
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses82 / 56
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 162
History coverage214d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $550 $644 +$94 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $150 $118 −$32 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $31 +$39 +128%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $15 −$5 -36%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 +$49 +100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $41 +$27 +67%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will England vs. Ghana end Jun 23 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $15 +$48 +311%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$144 +282%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $25 −$12 -47%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$7 -48%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$9 -59%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$38 +249%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $17 +$12 +67%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$119 +465%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$30 +118%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 +$24 +77%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 −$15 -60%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$9 +91%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35 +$17 +48%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $35 +$12 +35%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $151 −$150 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +249%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$21 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $40 +$62 +156%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $47 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 64¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $10 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $49 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 49¢ $40 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 16¢ $26 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $34 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 84¢ $33 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea BUY 18¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 22¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $15 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $26 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to S BUY 17¢ $26 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to S BUY 18¢ $26 5d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will England vs. Ghana end SELL 99¢ $11 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 5d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will England vs. Ghana end BUY 47¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 5d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will E BUY 58¢ $35 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Har BUY 21¢ $26 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 BUY 24¢ $15 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.08 · official $761.08 (match) · 313 history records