Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcce5…3527 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized +$17 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$530
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$98
sports 29% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +18.1% +6.8% 22% 22% +37.9%
≤30d 56 +3.1% -6.7% 18% 18% +3.4%
≤90d 56 +3.1% -6.7% 18% 18% +3.4%
all 56 +3.1% -6.7% 18% 18% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 18% +3.4%
10% -15.6% 18% -6.5%
15% -23.8% 18% -15.5%
20% -31.3% 16% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$22 · ×5.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 46
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions14
Markets (closed)56 / 71
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $80 $87 +$7 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $36 $65 +$29 (+79%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+27%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-59%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $102 +$250 +245%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$63 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$167 +798%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 −$34 -96%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$28 -54%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$18 -57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -12%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $46 +$454 +982%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 +$112 +365%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 −$17 -38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$75 -49%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 −$57 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$41 +262%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$28 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $102 19h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 41h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 41h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 47h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $53 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.84 · official $460.24 · 131 history records