Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcce4…6a58 crypto 594 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,538 (+20%) realized +$4,546 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate40%240W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day106.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 15% -10.2%
≤30d 595 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 15% -10.1%
≤90d 595 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 15% -10.1%
all 595 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 15% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 7% -18.7%
15% -24.4% 4% -26.5%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$4,546
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses240 / 355
Open positions1
Markets (closed)595 / 594
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day106.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 595 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 53¢ 80¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 46¢ 20¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $70 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $85 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $155 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $74 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $86 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.19 · official $33.14 (match) · 3500 history records