Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcce2…40bc politics 118 markets active 24h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,273 (+2%) realized +$2,273 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%29W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,048per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$58
other 33% +$92
sports 13% +$2,224
culture 6% −$10
world 4% −$4
crypto 2% +$3
economics 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -10.8% -19.3% 11% 3% -8.6%
all 117 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 12% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 12% -7.9%
10% -17.5% 12% -16.7%
15% -25.4% 9% -24.7%
20% -32.8% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,303) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$5 · ×18.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.11 per $1 lost it wins $6.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized+$2,273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses29 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,048
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $658 $658 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $494 +$2 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,829 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $743 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4,118 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $2,107 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,084 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,948 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 19 $528 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,388 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,212 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 04 $323 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $438 +$1 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $4,662 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $343 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,303 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $5,180 −$5 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,225 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $4,950 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5,327 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,253 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,374 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,629 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $658 23h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $841 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $843 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $760 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $761 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $720 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $851 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $792 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $793 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $742 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $743 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $697 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $699 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $714 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $715 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $824 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $826 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $711 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $712 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $808 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $810 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 17d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $909 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.11 · official $658.11 (match) · 366 history records