Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcce2…d58b
other · 219 markets active 32d ago
0.5score
+$100,253 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$97,295 · open +$2,958
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$148,278
Realized+$97,295
Unrealized+$2,958
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses164 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)198 / 219
Avg bet$3,386
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 21 History 198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $24,300 $27,150 +$2,850 (+12%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $23,379 $24,306 +$927 (+4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $17,100 $18,100 +$1,000 (+6%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $8,700 $9,410 +$710 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $8,750 $9,385 +$635 (+7%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $8,030 $8,353 +$323 (+4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $7,284 $7,700 +$416 (+6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 88¢ 52¢ $12,829 $7,471 −$5,357 (-42%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,896 $6,101 +$205 (+3%)
China coup attempt before 2027? No 90¢ 98¢ $5,518 $5,990 +$472 (+9%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $4,700 $4,955 +$255 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $4,450 $4,725 +$275 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $4,539 $4,684 +$146 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 78¢ $2,910 $2,592 −$318 (-11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,108 $2,217 +$109 (+5%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $1,871 $2,023 +$152 (+8%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,619 $1,700 +$81 (+5%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $931 $979 +$48 (+5%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026? No 88¢ 95¢ $274 $295 +$21 (+8%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $109 $117 +$7 (+7%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April? No 31¢ 0¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April? May 10 $246 −$238 -97%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April? May 10 $41 −$39 -96%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Mar 21 $4,272 −$4,272 -100%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June? Mar 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in August? Mar 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.5 in June? Mar 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? Mar 21 $986 −$986 -100%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August? Mar 21 $13 +$66 +512%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 21 $6,135 −$1,801 -29%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.50 in January? Mar 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in August? Mar 21 $1,048 +$159 +15%
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January? Mar 21 $1,072 +$188 +18%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $5,591 +$235 +4%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in January? Feb 22 $258 +$3 +1%
Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025? Jan 16 $96 +$4 +4%
US defaults on debt in 2025? Jan 16 $309 +$11 +4%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Jan 16 $465 +$74 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 16 $601 +$98 +16%
China x India military clash by December 31? Jan 16 $848 +$107 +13%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 16 $947 +$53 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 16 $880 +$120 +14%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jan 16 $992 +$98 +10%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 16 $1,593 +$77 +5%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 16 $1,600 +$400 +25%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Jan 16 $1,840 +$160 +9%
Trump abolishes IRS in 2025? Jan 16 $2,111 +$135 +6%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025? Jan 16 $2,138 +$235 +11%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jan 16 $2,213 +$424 +19%
US recession in 2025? Jan 16 $1,262 +$2,198 +174%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jan 16 $5,989 +$812 +14%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 16 $4,331 +$521 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 16 $4,643 +$718 +16%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Jan 16 $6,141 +$356 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 16 $13,050 +$1,950 +15%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 16 $19,854 +$3,680 +18%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 16 $64,392 +$6,498 +10%
5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025? Dec 30 $2,401 +$229 +10%
Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025? Dec 19 $93 +$7 +8%
Fed rate hike in 2025? Dec 19 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Nov 03 $174 +$161 +92%
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025? Oct 30 $250 +$58 +23%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $7,740 +$420 +5%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 19 $3,176 +$260 +8%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025? Sep 19 $95 +$4 +4%
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in August? Sep 11 $6,482 +$333 +5%
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August? Sep 11 $12,529 +$5,925 +47%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 10 $1,441 −$914 -63%
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August? Sep 05 $668 +$379 +57%
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? Sep 05 $80 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$97,093
economics 22% +$1,756
crypto 15% −$4,100
politics 12% −$3,203
world 9% +$6,521
finance 2% +$3,013
sports 1% −$351
tech 0% −$476
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April? BUY No 30¢ $11 32d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 32d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 32d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April? BUY No 31¢ $235 32d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 32d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 89¢ $4,470 33d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $3,736 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $203 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $25 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $321 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $569 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $67 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,263 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,730 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,730 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 33d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 34d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,832 34d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 34d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $609 34d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $67 82d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $14 82d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 82d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 13 -29.6% -36.3% 23% 23% -58.7%
all 198 +10.9% +0.4% 83% 28% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 28% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 14% -4.8%
15% -18.0% 9% -14.0%
20% -26.1% 7% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148,277.86 · official $148,277.86 (match) · 2099 history records