Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcce1…49c7 sports 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$651 (-3%) realized −$628 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%270W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$299est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$125
14 days−$325
30 days−$1,818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$943
crypto 21% −$367
other 2% −$386
world 0% +$4
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -26.9% -33.8% 35% 35% -34.8%
≤30d 395 +4.2% -5.7% 52% 47% -21.7%
≤90d 521 +0.4% -9.2% 51% 46% -17.6%
all 531 +0.7% -8.9% 51% 46% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 46% -17.5%
10% -17.6% 40% -25.4%
15% -25.5% 32% -32.6%
20% -32.8% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$628
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses270 / 261
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions2
Markets (closed)531 / 533
History coverage474d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 531 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2 Royal Never Give Up 64¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 224 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$7 +68%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $26 +$8 +29%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 21 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $71 −$19 -26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $33 −$6 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $48 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $74 −$19 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$17 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 +$11 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $35 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $54 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $28 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $70 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 +$32 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $109 −$40 -37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $29 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $68 +$32 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $39 +$28 +70%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$7 +74%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $76 +$81 +106%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $38 +$38 +101%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $77 +$37 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $43 −$43 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 99¢ $17 3m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 89¢ $9 36m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 63¢ $9 37m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 58¢ $10 48m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 49m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 2h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Royal Never Give Up 64¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $34 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY Mentality Monster 77¢ $26 3h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY OpTic Texas 80¢ $29 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $31 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 57¢ $12 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 57¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $17 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $40 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 32¢ $13 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 73¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $12 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $33 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 58¢ $25 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 58¢ $18 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $30 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $18 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.07 · official $9.07 (match) · 1587 history records