Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcce1…28f5 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$4
other 21% $0
politics 4% +$2
sports 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 15 +25.5% +13.6% 53% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +25.5% +13.6% 53% 7% -8.8%
all 37 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 5% -8.9%
10% -10.7% 5% -17.7%
15% -19.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -27.2% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage451d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $47 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $6 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $56 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$2 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $88 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 22 $7 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $6 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $56 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $46 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $47 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $51 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $56 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $52 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.26 · official $55.88 (match) · 126 history records