Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CC 0xccde…8493 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+12%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$8
other 38% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 56% +1.5%
≤30d 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 56% +1.5%
≤90d 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 56% +1.5%
all 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 56% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 56% +1.5%
10% -9.5% 44% -8.2%
15% -18.2% 44% -17.1%
20% -26.2% 44% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +196%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $16 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.12 · official $11.12 (match) · 35 history records