Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xccde…b4f8 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$10
politics 20% −$7
sports 6% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 9% -9.6%
all 102 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage87d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $589 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $286 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $279 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $300 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $879 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $306 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $297 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $299 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $304 $0 +0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $764 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 12h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 14h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 18h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $65 16d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $65 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $129 25d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $283 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.98 · official $234.98 (match) · 325 history records