Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CC 0xccdd…4fc9 politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$8
other 36% −$13
tech 7% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$777) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage89d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $973 $973 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $738 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 14 $734 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 12 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 12 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $797 −$9 -1%
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $797 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $185 $0 -0%
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 1m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 7m
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $937 17m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 25m
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 33m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 43m
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 50m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $724 1h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $271 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $996 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 38d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 38d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 38d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 38d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 38d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 38d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $775 41d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 41d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 41d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 41d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 41d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $738 41d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 41d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $728 41d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 41d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $517 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.81 · official $972.81 (match) · 84 history records