Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xccda…21f3 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+0%) realized −$81 · open +$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 48L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$363
sports 3% +$24
crypto 1% +$658
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +36.1% +23.1% 75% 75% +41.2%
≤90d 68 -15.4% -23.4% 46% 44% -2.0%
all 91 -14.7% -22.8% 47% 45% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 45% -9.5%
10% -30.2% 44% -18.1%
15% -36.9% 40% -26.1%
20% -43.1% 34% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$690 vs −$617 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$748
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$278
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage283d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 96¢ $470 $748 +$278 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $672 +$307 +46%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $193 +$172 +89%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $305 +$333 +109%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $142 −$140 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $815 +$1,237 +152%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $493 +$517 +105%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) May 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,454 +$1,094 +75%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $507 +$409 +81%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $851 −$840 -99%
Spread: Córdoba CF (-1.5) May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $421 +$327 +78%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 14 $1,003 +$715 +71%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 13 $290 −$285 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $431 −$425 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $298 +$127 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $322 −$318 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $792 +$534 +67%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $993 +$616 +62%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $802 +$872 +109%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $171 +$229 +134%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $279 +$293 +105%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $204 +$274 +134%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $439 −$431 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $93 −$46 -49%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $203 +$197 +97%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $205 −$200 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,698 −$1,677 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,000 +$698 +70%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $700 −$687 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $500 +$238 +48%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $87 −$85 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $400 −$394 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $514 −$505 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $250 −$246 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $129 −$127 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $100 +$180 +180%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 07 $215 −$210 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $80 −$78 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $476 1h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 68¢ $672 23d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $365 25d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $638 25d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 25d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $193 26d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $102 26d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 44¢ $142 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 39¢ $815 34d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,009 35d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 12¢ $103 36d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 26¢ $102 36d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $493 36d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 52¢ $507 36d
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 36d
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $142 36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $916 37d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 37d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $658 37d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 37d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $796 37d
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 37d
Spread: Córdoba CF (-1.5) BUY Córdoba CF 37¢ $102 37d
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $647 37d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? SELL No 100¢ $747 38d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 55¢ $421 38d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $290 40d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $1,003 40d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $431 40d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? SELL No 95¢ $425 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $748.08 · official $748.08 (match) · 159 history records