Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xccd7…1a8d other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,954 (-48%) realized −$1,958 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$794
14 days−$794
30 days−$861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$838
sports 29% −$1,151
politics 28% +$3
other 12% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -76.3%
≤30d 4 -63.0% -66.6% 25% 25% -77.7%
≤90d 14 -39.8% -45.5% 36% 36% -55.7%
all 14 -39.8% -45.5% 36% 36% -55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 36% -55.7%
10% -50.7% 21% -59.9%
15% -55.5% 14% -63.8%
20% -59.8% 7% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$266 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$1,958
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage69d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $188 $192 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $66 +$15 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $809 −$609 -75%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 01 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Apr 29 $257 −$255 -99%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 29 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $101 +$15 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $102 +$125 +122%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 22 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $626 +$258 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 35m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 38m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 44m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 45m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $38 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 57m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $54 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $66 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $200 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $200 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $809 3d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $23 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $46 25d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 31d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 47d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes $100 47d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes $50 47d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 47d
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? BUY No 84¢ $257 49d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? SELL Yes 95¢ $259 49d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? BUY Yes 95¢ $260 49d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.35 · official $192.35 (match) · 45 history records