Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccd5…e51c crypto 199 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-4%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate76%151W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 67% -14.4%
≤30d 199 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 67% -14.4%
≤90d 199 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 67% -14.4%
all 199 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 67% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 67% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 27% -22.6%
15% -30.3% 11% -30.1%
20% -37.1% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses151 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records