Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xccd2…e920
other · 93 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage480d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $196 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $83 −$3 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $31 +$2 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $25 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $94 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $132 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $80 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$2
other 24% −$2
politics 15% $0
sports 13% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $11 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $27 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $27 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $28 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 19h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $32 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $28 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.1% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 26 -0.8% -10.2% 23% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 64 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 92 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.72 · official $10.72 (match) · 356 history records