Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xccd1…c586 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+5%) realized +$156 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$165
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$453
sports 37% +$532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.1% -7.7% 44% 44% -1.6%
≤30d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 42% -4.1%
≤90d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 42% -4.1%
all 26 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 42% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 42% -4.1%
10% -19.7% 42% -13.3%
15% -27.5% 42% -21.7%
20% -34.6% 31% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$66 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage8d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$121 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$75 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $51 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.72 · official $374.72 (match) · 44 history records