Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xccd0…9e2b world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 30% $0
politics 13% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 19 -1.1% -10.6% 37% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage453d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $11 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +7%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $37 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $37 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $34 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $34 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $27 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $27 25d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $10 355d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $1 356d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $11 375d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 80¢ $10 375d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 81¢ $10 375d
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? SELL No 99¢ $11 376d
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? BUY No 97¢ $11 376d
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio SELL No 99¢ $10 376d
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio BUY No 99¢ $10 377d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? SELL No 90¢ $10 377d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? BUY No 90¢ $10 379d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 94¢ $8 424d
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 SELL No 99¢ $8 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.54 · official $1.54 (match) · 44 history records