Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcccf…9471 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$184 (+2%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$4
crypto 24% +$66
sports 6% +$104
world 3% +$5
other 2% +$2
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 75% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 75% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 91% 0% -9.1%
all 44 +2.2% -7.6% 93% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 9% -8.1%
10% -16.4% 2% -16.9%
15% -24.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.3 per $1 lost it wins $12.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage590d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Jun 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Apr 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 11 $15 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 11 $80 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $37 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $55 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 09 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 09 $56 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 09 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? Oct 23 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Sep 29 $121 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 29 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 10 $117 +$3 +2%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jul 12 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 21 $55 +$6 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 14 $64 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 14 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Feb 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $80 +$1 +1%
Bulls vs. Celtics Jan 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 30 $15 +$2 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 30 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 16 $7,277 −$3 -0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? Dec 11 $88 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 05 $87 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $778 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Nov 29 $768 +$11 +1%
Rockets vs. 76ers Nov 29 $651 +$117 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $23 1h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 40d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $23 40d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 40d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $23 40d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $60 80d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $32 80d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $38 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 84d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 94d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $14 111d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 111d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $45 131d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 131d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 131d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $34 164d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 99¢ $15 164d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $80 164d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 196d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $36 196d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $55 196d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $72 196d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $56 226d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $71 243d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $55 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.19 · official $133.19 (match) · 160 history records