Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xccce…58da sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,336 (-2%) realized −$1,313 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate74%153W / 54L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$706
7 days−$2,534
14 days−$1,864
30 days−$1,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$867
other 6% −$462
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -11.4% -19.9% 74% 11% -18.3%
≤30d 207 -8.3% -17.0% 74% 19% -11.0%
≤90d 207 -8.3% -17.0% 74% 19% -11.0%
all 207 -8.3% -17.0% 74% 19% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 19% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 8% -19.5%
15% -32.2% 4% -27.3%
20% -38.9% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$601) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$92 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized−$1,313
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses153 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage17d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 98¢ 93¢ $488 $465 −$23 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $495 +$20 +4%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $329 +$43 +13%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $425 +$64 +15%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $377 +$15 +4%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $291 +$9 +3%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $384 +$15 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $387 +$11 +3%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $365 +$15 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $332 +$14 +4%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $285 +$12 +4%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $291 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $89 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $1,269 −$275 -22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $629 −$627 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $560 +$52 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $274 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $483 +$17 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $88 +$8 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $744 −$204 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $676 +$23 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $244 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $602 +$87 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $226 +$14 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $582 +$12 +2%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $582 +$12 +2%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $583 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $180 +$19 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $460 +$35 +8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $289 +$11 +4%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $470 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $790 −$264 -33%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $72 +$5 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $294 +$6 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $294 +$6 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $272 +$28 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $266 +$4 +1%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $240 +$5 +2%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $384 −$135 -35%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $361 −$135 -37%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $475 +$10 +2%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $460 +$19 +4%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $475 +$20 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 98¢ $50 5m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 98¢ $48 6m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 98¢ $390 6m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL Bebop 50¢ $5 22m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 99¢ $515 26m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $5 35m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 95¢ $69 39m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 95¢ $407 39m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 93¢ $19 40m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 93¢ $372 56m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $329 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 99¢ $391 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 93¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 93¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 93¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 93¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 95¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 85¢ $232 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 85¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 85¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 85¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 85¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 85¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 84¢ $8 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 98¢ $392 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 94¢ $377 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $300 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 97¢ $103 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 97¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 97¢ $33 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.75 · official $464.75 (match) · 745 history records