Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcccc…05b2 other 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,917 (+6%) realized +$3,422 · open +$1,495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$799per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$18,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,235
7 days+$3,327
14 days+$2,276
30 days+$3,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$3,447
politics 16% +$598
world 8% +$324
sports 4% +$48
tech 1% +$167
crypto 1% +$299
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 73% 45% -0.3%
≤30d 45 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 42% -3.6%
≤90d 49 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 39% -4.3%
all 65 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 29% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 29% -4.3%
10% -20.1% 15% -13.4%
15% -27.8% 3% -21.8%
20% -34.9% 3% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$158 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$18,597
Realized+$3,422
Unrealized+$1,495
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions30
Markets (closed)65 / 95
History coverage142d
Avg bet$799
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $4,480 $4,507 +$28 (+1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 84¢ $2,355 $2,505 +$150 (+6%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,760 $1,880 +$120 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,007 $1,312 +$305 (+30%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $1,063 $1,177 +$114 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,097 $1,103 +$6 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $951 $815 −$135 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $483 $688 +$206 (+43%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $499 $602 +$103 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $267 $568 +$302 (+113%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $441 $493 +$52 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $477 $396 −$81 (-17%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $357 $371 +$14 (+4%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 62¢ $60 $310 +$250 (+417%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $327 $304 −$22 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $297 $250 −$46 (-16%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will France win the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $159 $118 −$40 (-25%)
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $106 $117 +$11 (+11%)
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $104 $112 +$8 (+8%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 5¢ 21¢ $25 $106 +$82 (+326%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $89 $96 +$7 (+8%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $77 $89 +$12 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,588 +$1,412 +55%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3,547 +$453 +13%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $4,745 +$255 +5%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $813 +$87 +11%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $881 +$5 +1%
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $109 −$71 -66%
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $991 −$373 -38%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $395 +$105 +26%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $202 +$10 +5%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,500 +$423 +28%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $945 +$298 +32%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $371 −$370 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,792 +$1,208 +67%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,500 −$107 -7%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $1,514 +$473 +31%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,956 +$44 +2%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,500 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $452 +$48 +11%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $887 +$222 +25%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,912 +$88 +3%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,883 +$117 +6%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $905 −$900 -99%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,931 +$69 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3,359 +$214 +6%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $1,490 −$306 -20%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,511 −$92 -6%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $506 −$34 -7%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $361 +$102 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,509 −$151 -10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $507 +$45 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 12 $1,500 +$205 +14%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 11 $500 +$60 +12%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $503 +$110 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,496 −$114 -8%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 08 $497 +$35 +7%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 08 $247 +$2 +1%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $2,506 +$791 +32%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 06 $500 −$6 -1%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 04 $199 +$60 +30%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $301 +$14 +4%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $603 +$80 +13%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 04 $712 +$146 +20%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary May 20 $1,000 −$116 -12%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 20 $994 −$75 -8%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 21 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $74 4m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $32 4m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $55 5m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $335 20m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 24m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 27m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 28m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 29m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 30m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 33m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $111 41m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $90 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $69 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $201 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $234 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,596.73 · official $18,596.73 (match) · 882 history records